Fill the Bath with Water, it's Nearly Y2K Day
by David Millikan
Zadok Perspectives Issue No. 63
Autumn 1999

Those staying stone-cold sober

SO WHAT IS GOING to happen? On a recent radio program James Strong, CEO at Qantas Airlines, was asked by ABC Radio National's Terry Lane whether he would be in the air at midnight on December 31. He said that he and the other senior executives from Qantas would be sitting around a table, "clear-eyed, stone cold sober, taking phone calls, monitoring the situation . . ."

Like me, you're probably not reassured by Strong's plans. It gave me the distinct impression that he was expecting a problem. And he is not the only one. Take this comment from Edward Yardeni from Deutsche Bank:

The year 2000 problem is . . . bound to disrupt the entire global economy. I believe there is a 70 per cent [though he has since revised that to 40 per cent] chance of worldwide recession, which could last at least 12 months starting in January 2000 and could be at least as severe as the 1973-74 global recession. That downturn was caused by the OPEC oil crisis, which is a useful analogy for thinking about the potential economic consequences of Y2K. Just as oil is a vital resource for our global economy, so is information. If the supply of information is disrupted, many economic activities will be impaired, if not entirely halted.

And an assessment of the Y2K problem, recently produced for the US government and released by Senators Robert F. Bennett (Republican, Utah) and Christopher J. Dodd (Democrat, Conn.), included a letter to Senate colleagues describing the Y2K problem as a "worldwide crisis" and "one of the most serious and potentially-devastating events this nation has ever encountered". The letter goes on to say, "Make no mistake, this problem will affect us all individually and collectively in very profound ways . . . In some cases, lives could even be at stake."

According to a report from David Wise in the Washington Post earlier this year, the District of Columbia has been lagging behind in its preparations. The coordinator of the Y2K project for the District, Mary Ellen Hanley, said that they were now concentrating on preventing a breakdown in the delivery of services to residents. From March, the District of Columbia has had more than 300 IBM consultants working on the issue and will launch a campaign aimed at informing residents about ways to deal with potential difficulties.

"You can do the marauder approach and move to the mountains," Hanley said, "or you can buy four weeks' worth of water, put $100 in your pocket and make sure you are safe in your home."
The full bath option is looking like the way to go.

To: The Devil's in the Digits

Paul Mitchell Paul Mitchell is Associate Editor at Zadok and edits the e-zine www.shootthe messenger.com.au. (See Alan Gijspers' review of The Pearly Gates of Cyberspace)